Bayesian forecasting of disease spread with little or no local data

For our model (component 1), we used a slightly modified version of the model from Hefley et al.10 which is:

$${y}_{i}\sim Bernoulli\left({p}_{i}\right),$$

(3)

$$g\left({p}_{i}\right)=u\left({\mathbf{s}}_{i},{t}_{i}\right){e}^{{\mathbf{x}}_{i}^{^{\prime}}{\varvec{\beta}}},$$

(4)

$$\frac{\partial }{{\partial }_{t}}u\left(\mathbf{s},t\right)=\left(\frac{{\partial }^{2}}{\partial {s}_{1}^{2}}+\frac{{\partial }^{2}}{\partial {s}_{2}^{2}}\right)\mu \left(\mathbf{s}\right)u(\mathbf{s},t)+ \lambda…

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