Modelling the effectiveness of surveillance based on metagenomics in detecting, monitoring, and forecasting antimicrobial resistance in livestock production under economic constraints

The design of the study is presented in Fig. 7. Initially, we developed a dynamic mathematical model describing the occurrence and the change in the occurrence of ARGs of interest in the population over time. This model describes the “true” occurrence of ARGs of interest at any given time.

Secondly, a model mimicking the surveillance program overlaid the model of the “true” occurrence to simulate the results that can be observed in surveillance given the settings of the sampling schedule (frequency of sampling, sample size, and…